miércoles, julio 28, 2010

"Tener más de dos hijos es egoísta e irresponsable"

Transcribo una entrevista hecha por el diario El País a Paul Ralph Ehrlich, entómologo estadounidense (por favor, no digamos más "americano", todos los nacidos en el continente americano lo somos). Al leer la entrevista no puedo evitar acordarme de Maru Botana (siete hijos). Obviamente imperdible.

Paul R. Ehrlich tiene un discurso tan interesante como provocador. Biólogo de poblaciones en la Universidad de Stanford, Ehrlich recibió ayer el prestigioso premio Margalef de Ecología que entrega la Generalitat de Cataluña. Mantiene su discurso desde que en 1968 publicó The population bomb: Sobra gente en el planeta y quien tiene más de dos hijos debería ser visto como un peligro. Heredero del pensamiento de Malthus, Ehrlich, que aprendió algo de español en Costa Rica leyendo los textos de ecología de Margalef, sostiene que su discurso sólo escandaliza a quien no sabe de demografía. Él sólo tuvo una hija, que a su vez tuvo dos hijos y adoptó un tercero, que a su vez ya le ha dado un bisnieto.

Pregunta. ¿Hay demasiada gente en la Tierra?
Respuesta. Claro. Es fácilmente demostrable. No es ningún misterio. Vivimos en el capital, no en el interés. Y estamos agotando el suelo agrícola, el agua de los acuíferos, perdemos poblaciones de especies y la capacidad de la atmósfera para absorber gases de efecto invernadero está al límite.
P. De acuerdo, pero eso puede ser resultado del modelo de crecimiento, no sólo de la población. ¿Se puede no afectar al agua y mantener la población?
R. No puedes separar la población y el consumo. Es como la relación entre dos lados de un rectángulo. No podemos mantener la gente que hoy tenemos al nivel de vida de un español medio. Puedes reducir la población o el consumo por persona, pero deberíamos reducir ambos.
P. ¿Cuál sería el número adecuado de habitantes?
R. Hicimos un cálculo asumiendo que todo el mundo viviría como un mexicano de clase media y en que mejoraba la tecnología. Y la Tierra puede soportar a 2.000 millones, que es lo razonable. Es la cifra que había en 1934, cuando nací. Había gente suficiente para tener grandes ciudades, por si te gusta la ópera y los museos, pero a la vez quedaba naturaleza.
P. Es imposible volver esa cifra.
R. Por eso llevamos años hablando de ello. Hacerlo de forma humanitaria lleva mucho tiempo. Podrías disparar a un tercio de la población mañana pero no queremos hacerlo así. Cambiar los modelos de producción y consumo se puede hacer de forma casi instantánea. En 1941, EE UU pasó de producir automóviles a tanques y en 1945 de nuevo al revés. Yo me acuerdo. Pero no se puede hacer eso con la población. Por eso debíamos haber empezado en los 60.
P. Los chinos lo han hecho.
R. Sí, pero no de una forma que pueda gustar a los europeos, aunque la derecha exagera los abusos, como los abortos forzados. China es el único Gobierno del mundo que publica cuánto CO2 evita que vaya a la atmósfera gracias a la planificación familiar.
P. ¿Qué haría si usted si tuviera poder?
R. En EE.UU. necesitamos un presidente que tenga agallas y diga que nadie ha dado nunca una razón de por qué debe haber más de 140 millones de americanos vivos a la vez. La única razón semisensata es que con esa población ganamos la Segunda Guerra Mundial, pero nadie cree hoy que los número te dan poder militar. Un presidente debería decir: 'Ahora tenemos 370 millones de personas, lo que nos está dando todo tipo de problemas y sus hijos vivirán peor que ustedes. Tendremos que invadir países para conseguir su petróelo porque cada vez necesitaremos más petróleo. Así que lo patriótico sería limitar el número de hijos'. No estamos tan lejos, pero deberíamos bajar a un nivel como el de España.
P. ¿Y quién va a pagar las pensiones?
R. Ese es un argumento más estúpido que existe. Es esféricamente estúpido, porque lo es lo mires por donde lo mires. Primero matemáticamente. Si se reduce la natalidad aumenta la población mayor de 65 años. Pero los demógrafos hablan del índice de dependencia, la cantidad de niños y mayores por cada adulto en edad de trabajar. Así tendrías más de gente mayor de 65 años pero menos niños. Y es más fácil hacer económicamente productivo a alguien de 65 años que a un niño de siete. Es una locura obligar a la gente a retirarse a los 65 años. La gente que se retira más tarde vive mejor y más feliz y muere más tarde. Pero lo más estúpido de todo es que, a menos que creas que la población puede crecer indefinidamente, tienes que afrontar esto. Así que lo mejor es hacerlo ahora y gradualmente, no dentro de dos generaciones, cuando la situación será peor. Lamentablemente los políticos no saben de demografía.
P. ¿Y en La India, cómo lo haría?
R. Hay Estados que lo han hecho, como Tamil Nadu. Pusieron condones en las peluquerías a las que van los hombres. Y con educación y mejorando el acceso a los colegios se reduce la natalidad y se mejora la calidad de vida. Porque los niños ya no son mano de obra sino objetos caros de mantener. La duda es si España debe aspirar a tener 100 millones de habitantes y gastar toda el agua y los recursos naturales o ser 35 millones y que el país aguante 1.000 años.
P. Pero con renovables, desalinización... se puede vivir sin arruinar el planeta.
R. Llevo demasiado tiempo en este juego. En 1968, cuando éramos 3.500 millones me decían "no te preocupes porque la tecnología nos permitirá dar de comer a 5.000 millones". Ya vamos por 6.800. Yo replicaba: ¿Por qué no le damos esa tecnología a los 3.500 millones de habitantes para que tengan una buena vida sin agotar los recursos y entonces discutiremos si vamos a 5.000 millones?. Pasamos esa cifra y cada vez hay más gente pobre y hambrienta. Pero hay gente que sigue diciendo que no hay problema.
P. Y a quien le gustan los niños, ¿no puede tener cuatro o cinco hijos?
R. ¿Qué diría si su vecino dijera: 'No me gusta la basura en mi jardín. Prefiero tirarla al tuyo'?. Este es un asunto social. Te afecta a ti cuántos hijos tiene tu vecino. Es normal que te gusten los niños, a mí me gustan, pero esa no es la cuestión. La pregunta es qué vida quieres para esos hijos o cuántos hijos puedo tener para que, junto con los de mis vecinos, puedan tener una vida decente, sin cambio climático y con agua suficiente.
P. ¿Cuántos hijos puede tener una pareja?
R. Que paren en el segundo. Con eso saldría de 1,5. Tener más de dos es egoísta e irresponsable, porque hay que tener en cuénta qué pasará con ellos y con los de otra gente. Pero la mayoría de la gente no sabe cómo funciona el sistema legislativo de su país ni cómo es el sistema ecológico. Y sin saber eso, cómo se puede esperar que lo entiendan.
P. ¿No está arraigado lo de tener muchos hijos para que te cuiden de mayor?
R. La gente tenía seis o siete hijos porque cuatro o cinco morían antes de que llegaras a viejo. Artificialmente alteramos la mortalidad y ahora éticamente estamos obligados a actuar sobre la natalidad para que no nazca tanta gente. Las mujeres no quieren tener siete hijos. Además, siempre hemos limitado los nacimientos. Si no, cada mujer podría tener hasta 30 hijos y eso no ha ocurrido en ninguna cultura.
P. Hay religiones, como la católica, que se oponen a esto.
R. España es un país católico y tiene la tasa de fertilidad más baja del mundo. El Papa pide a la gente que tenga más hijos pero la gente no escucha lo que dice el viejo. Me da un poco de pena el Papa. Su posición política es difícil.
P. ¿Por qué no se habla de esto?
R. Hay un tabú. La derecha, y a veces también la izquierda, piesan que si dices que sobra gente es que odias a los niños y que eres un insensible. Es al revés: te preocupas por cómo vivirán tus descendientes.
P. ¿Al final no somos diferentes de cualquier población animal, que crece hasta que ocupa todo y luego tiene que reducirse por falta de recursos?
R. Somos como moscas de la fruta. Una mosca llega a un grupo de plátanos pone huevos y causa una explosión demográfica. Cuando la población colapsa porque hay demasiadas moscas algunas hembras se van a otro grupo de plátanos. Pero aquí no tenemos dónde ir. Ése es nuestro dilema.

Existe una organización llamada Optimum Population Trust que discute, así como lo hace Ehrlich en la entrevista, sobre las consecuencias del crecimiento de la población en el medio ambiente. Una de sus frases promocionales es: "Pará en el segundo", o algo así.

Ya que los gobiernos no se preocupan por el cambio climático y las consecuencias de la necesidad de una mayor producción de alimentos debido a la explosión demográfica, es necesario que como individuos empecemos a tener conciencia.

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